We are now in the holiday season of 2025. And the next year is about to begin soon. It is logical that businessmen start thinking of what awaits them next year. With all the uncertainty that exists in the world and we are all familiar with these uncertainties there is no choice sometimes to make prediction for next year.
So what awaits us?
CHINA
Lets start with China for example. China has been the biggest player in the stone industry except for the last 4-5 years when the property boom collapsed. But it still remains major player. There is always a surplus of supply over demand. So what are the Chinese doing now? Because of the industry is in trouble many companies close down but companies open again. There is a tremendous price pressure in all segments of the market, low-end, medium end and even the premium end. But they have also been very innovative. More than any other country, the Chinese have ventured into making furniture made of metal stone. They dominate the Southeast Asian markets too. They have the logistic advantage and this trend is likely to continue next year.
INDIA
Lets look at the India. This is one of the few bright spots of 2026. The construction industry is booming. There are about 400 importers. Many internet companies which were doing all that well transformed their installations and now working with marble and they no longer focusing on export but on the local market. Now other companies also ventured into quartz and they are in trouble because of the tariffs in the USA. The local market is doing very well and just about everyone who Works in the local market is growing. Less than what they would like but they are quite happy with it.
MIDDLE EAST
Now we are in the Middle East. It’s a volume player. Emirates is a booming market. So is Saudi Arabia. So is Libya. And Iraq which is growing. But the lower oil price has put an a dampener on some projects. But because of the huge amount of supply coming from China, India, Turkey and everywhere else the prices are low. It is not sometimes a profitable market to be in.
EUROPE
Moving on to Europe. The two big markets for next year are likely to be Poland and Spain. Poland went through a hiccup of about 2-3 years. But now its back in style with projects coming all over time, all over the country. And next year is going to see another good year in Poland. The problem with Poland is it is also over supplied into that market.
SPAIN
Now one surprise is the Spanish market which is accually doing very well. The demand is 250.000 homes per year. The construction supply is around 100.000. However, the real big market is the renovation market. In 2024, approximately 1.8 to 1.9 million homes were renovated. Similar situation was happened this year and is likely to be next year. And the construction is especially booming in Madrid and also in the coastal areas. Not so much in the inside.
FRANCE-GERMANY
France is going will be through a period of austerity. The landscaping segment which is very important to France is doing reasonably well. But one sould be expect a slowdown in public sector projects. Germany was went through anemic 2025. Most likely 2026 is going to be something similar. The demand is there. 400.000 homes per year is what the German demand is. But they are building just 150.000 or 200.000.
USA
Now moving on to the Americas. The big player is of course USA. On the other hand USA is the big player which can give a lot of problems. The export stock like a bubble. There is also a slowdown in the market. We are seeing that in the sense that so many importers in the mass market. So many fabricators are having financial trouble. They are asking for extended payments terms. They started with 120 days and when that period arrives they reach 200, they ask for 90 days more. That’s not a good sign. But USA is a huge market and even the premium segment where it is price doesn’t really matter so much is vast. That is premium stones like quartzite from Brazil and the premium stones of Italy most of them.
BRAZIL-ARGENTINA
Now go down to Brazil. Surprisingly its also doing very well. It has a wide range of granite, quartzites and marbles. The quartzite go to USA and rest of the World. Rest of the Stones, they are finding a way out in the local market. Argentina beginning to recover after many years. The other South American countries are small volume players, price sensitive. Mexico ise fine. When USA is doing fine Mexico also does fine. And its also a very interesting market by itself.
THE UNKNOWS
It is going to be an interesting year. Because a lot of things that can happen which we really dont know, which we cant control. There could be a stock market crash. There could be a rise in interest rate sor there might be a decline in interest rates. They there are wars which havent really ended yet.
But when you start with a new year, you have to be optimistic.
Happy new year.
