It is perhaps too early to make firm judgements, only a few hours after the Trump administration has launched a tariffs war on rest of the world. Much could change, and soon. There will probably be retaliation soon by other countries and by the EU. But we should also expect negotiations behind closed doors to take place too, and, hopefully, some kind of agreements and concessions so that the world economy does not enter a recession.
CHINA WILL BE OUT OF THE MARKET
For now this is how the situation looks like with the new tariffs imposed by USA:
Brazil and Turkey, with a 10% duty imposed on them, have got away lightly. Quartzite exporters and marble exporters can handle these increased duties.
Vietnam was becoming a big exporter of quartz to USA, a 46% duty will hit it badly.
China was already facing high duties, now it will be practically out of the US market.
No mention of Egypt- so its exports should not be affected.
India has been hit with 26%, everything, quartz, porcelain, granite, will be hit hard but its competitors in Far East countries have been hit even harder.
OVERALL DEMAND WILL DECREASE
20% on EU surely hits the Italians and Greeks exporters. Also the porcelain and quartz exporters stand to lose competitiveness.
Perhaps more important, with inflation in USA likely to shoot up, cost of building materials having increased, the much anticipated construction boom will fizzle out. New housing prices, already high, will become even more unaffordable. Interest rates in US will surely increase. Overall demand will decrease. Cash flow pressures on US importers of stone in USA will increase. It is possible many smaller importers will go bankrupt, if the US market slows down considerably.
In other words, unless the new tariffs are removed or lowered considerably, and soon, big trouble lies ahead.
Everyone will be looking for alternative markets. But where are they? Most likely the local market in India will be only slightly affected, so demand there should remain stable.
9 APRIL 2025:
On 9 April the administration announced a 90 day pause on these tariffs. As of today the prevailing tariffs are 10% on almost every country and 145% on China, a vastly different situation.
12 MAY 2025:
Changes again! The suspension of tariffs between US and China for 90 days means imports of natural stone from China will now be subject to 30% duties. (On quartz, the duties remain 300+%). But the window for placing orders and getting deliveries is very short. What happens after 90 days? The uncertainty remains.
23 MAY 2025
The US administration has announced that tariffs of 50% will be imposed on most products starting 1 June 2025. These new tariffs, if implemented, will effectively kill all most exports of stone from South European countries.
26 MAY 2025:
The US administration suspended its decision to impose a 50% tariff on most products from the EU from June 1, 2025 and extended the deadline for negotiations until July 9.
27 MAY 2025:
A US court has blocked the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. For the stone industry this basically means the 10 % universal tariffs imposed on most goods will, for now, not taken effect. The US administration has appealed against this ruling.
28 MAY 2025:
An appeals court has temporarily reinstated US administration tariffs that were blocked by a US court a day earlier. This means that the heavy tariffs on China remain in place, as well as the 10% tariffs on most goods for most countries, which most stone companies expect to pay.
